Free toolshedge
A hedge is a second bet on the opposite side of a ticket you already hold. Stake it right and both outcomes pay the same number. This works out that stake, what it settles at either way, and — the part books' own hedge calculators leave off — what converting the uncertainty into a settled result actually costs you.
What you already have at risk on the open ticket.
The number you took when you placed the bet.
The opposite side, priced right now — at any book.
Hedge stake
$180.00
Stake the original ticket's full return, $300.00, back through the hedge price.
Result either way
$20.00
Identical on both branches — that is what "equal-profit" means.
Return on total outlay
7.14%
$20.00 on $280.00 at risk across both tickets.
No hedge — let it ride
One ticket, two outcomes. This is the comparison the decision is actually against.
Original wins
$200.00
Other side wins
-$100.00
Equal-profit hedge — $180.00 on the other side
Both branches collapse onto one number.
Original wins
$20.00
Other side wins
$20.00
Enter your own hedge stake below to price a partial hedge — hedging is not all-or-nothing.
The return above is not a coincidence: it is exactly minus the two-way hold of those two prices, always. These two prices together imply less than 100%, which is why the locked result is not a loss. That is the line having moved after you bet (or two different books disagreeing), not a system.
So the honest way to read a hedge is as a trade, not a win: you are paying the current margin to convert an uncertain outcome into a settled one. Whether that is worth it is a question about your bankroll and your nerves, not about the arithmetic. Measure the same pair with the hold calculator and you will get the same number back.
Write d₁ for the decimal price you originally took and d₂ for the decimal price of the opposite side right now. With stake S on the original and H on the hedge, the two branches pay:
Set them equal and almost everything cancels — the hedge stake is just the original ticket's return, re-staked through the new price:
Now the part worth internalising. Divide that settled result by everything at risk across both tickets and you always land on the same identity:
Hedging both sides of a market as it stands returns exactly minus that market's hold. There is no stake split that escapes it, because the two prices sum to more than 100% by construction — that is what the vig is. The only way the number comes out positive is if the line moved after you bet, so your original price and the current price no longer belong to the same market. Measure any pair of prices with the hold calculator or strip them with the no-vig calculator and you will see the same number from the other direction.
None of which says whether you should hedge. A full hedge settles the ticket at a known number; a partial one keeps some of both branches; letting it ride keeps all of both. That is a question about your bankroll and how much variance you want to carry — see Kelly sizing for the same trade-off on the way in, and responsible-gambling resources here.
More free tools
These calculators run the exact helpers the Blitzen terminal uses on every board. See them applied to real markets — and how we grade everything against the close.